Armenia and Azerbaijan

AWP

Formerly Known as Freefalling
Administrator
Joined
Sep 8, 2006
Messages
16,398
Location
Not Afghanistan
I guess Turkey saw my post and decided to kick up the timeline a bit.

Turkey Has Reportedly Test Fired Its S-400 Air Defense System For The First Time

Reports, following the appearance of videos on social media, suggest that Turkey has begun live-fire testing of its controversial Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile system. Doing so risks provoking the wrath of traditional allies, especially the United States, which has threatened new sanctions in the past if Turkish authorities were to take this step.

Video footage emerged on social media earlier today of the reported “comprehensive test” of the S-400 system in the country’s Sinop province on the Black Sea coast. Though unconfirmed, they show narrow columns of smoke snaking into the sky over that region that do appear to be broadly consistent with S-400 missile launches that we’ve seen in the past.
 

Gordus

Member
Joined
May 18, 2018
Messages
384
It seems the most decicive battle of the conflict thus far, over historical Shusha, was won by Azerbaijan. Their troops are in full control of the town.

This development comes as a total surprise to me. The Armenians were in a difficult situation yeah, but I really didn't expect this battle to be decided so quickly given the strategic and symbolic/religious importance attributed to it. I was expecting a dramatic back and forth. The Armenians put up a stubborn fight all the way up to Shusha though.

I can imagine how outraged the people in Armenia must be.

But it's also unfair to judge the actual situation on ground, from an ignorant perspective. I believe the Armenian troops in Artsakh tried their best. "Peace agreement." Wonder how things go from there.
 

DA SWO

SOWT
Verified SOF
Joined
Aug 18, 2007
Messages
9,632
Location
San Antonio Texas
It seems the most decicive battle of the conflict thus far, over historical Shusha, was won by Azerbaijan. Their troops are in full control of the town.

This development comes as a total surprise to me. The Armenians were in a difficult situation yeah, but I really didn't expect this battle to be decided so quickly given the strategic and symbolic/religious importance attributed to it. I was expecting a dramatic back and forth. The Armenians put up a stubborn fight all the way up to Shusha though.

I can imagine how outraged the people in Armenia must be.

But it's also unfair to judge the actual situation on ground, from an ignorant perspective. I believe the Armenian troops in Artsakh tried their best. "Peace agreement." Wonder how things go from there.
Armenians were outgunned numbers wise, and in quality of equipment. I see a weapons buying spree from both sides.
 

Gordus

Member
Joined
May 18, 2018
Messages
384
"I warned about lack of manpower on October 3", Karabakh President

In a LIVE address to the Karabakh refugees currently in Armenia, Karabakh President Arayik Harutyunyan said Wednesday, "Today we are solving infrastructure problems and social issues. There are enough resources to ensure a normal life. All roads will be protected. Residents of Karabakh, return to Karabakh."


Harutyunyan also addressed the rumors regarding betrayals. He reminded that the first time he had alerted the nation about the lack of manpower was on October 3. Harutyunyan said that since then, he had continuously warned that they needed more soldiers.

“We had to sign a ceasefire because the soldiers were in danger of being completely surrounded. We did not have enough manpower to defend Shushi, the enemy had sent an army of 6,000 to the area…Only men who fought on the frontline and mothers who lost their sons have the right to blame us,” Harutyunyan said.

He repeatedly urged the public not to look for traitors, and mentioned that whoever is looking, must answer where he was during the war.

On November 10, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pahsinyan announced that he has signed a ceasefire statement with Russia and Azerbaijan to end the war in Karabakh. The agreement is a major defeat for Armenia in the territory of Karabakh.
 

Phoenix15

Unverified
Joined
Aug 5, 2013
Messages
35
The Bosporus, history/ nukes, an outpost on the southern flank of Russia, offset a growing Russian influence, some...facilities we possess in that country, off the top of my head.

I think Turkey falling under the Russian sphere of influence is a foregone conclusion, the timeline is the wildcard. Once we wrap up in Iraq Incirlik becomes less important to current operations. Hell, I'd make the case to leave Incirlik and spin up bases in the PI to support the "pivot to the Pacific."

In 5-10 years, Turkey won't be a NATO member. Shoot, if Trump wins in Nov. that 5 years could be optimistic.
I'm struggling to make sense of Turkey buying the S-400 system and falling under the Russian sphere while simultaneously fighting them all across the region. Is there a mutual recognition of gamesmanship between them and very little threat of this going hot on a massive scale between Turkey/Russia?

The Turks may annex parts of Idlib and Northern Syria, maybe they give some up some influence to the Russians in Libya and the Caucus and then once this is all settled they realize they have to get along since they are the strong regional powers? Does that jive with reality?
 

Phoenix15

Unverified
Joined
Aug 5, 2013
Messages
35
I'm struggling to make sense of Turkey buying the S-400 system and falling under the Russian sphere while simultaneously fighting them all across the region. Is there a mutual recognition of gamesmanship between them and very little threat of this going hot on a massive scale between Turkey/Russia?

The Turks may annex parts of Idlib and Northern Syria, maybe they give some up some influence to the Russians in Libya and the Caucus and then once this is all settled they realize they have to get along since they are the strong regional powers? Does that jive with reality?
Follow up to my previous post. After some more reading:
Russian President Putin Wins Upset Victory in Nagorno-Karabakh

I've begun to understand that it doesn't matter how hard Turkey tries to dictate regional trends. Russia will be the dominant player for the foreseeable future and I guess I overestimated Turkeys abilities and diplomatic weight. I don't want to stroke off Putin too much but it seems like he'll cuck the Turk whenever he pleases. Turkey is probably longing for the days of their impressive drone work over Idlib/Hama.
 
Top