China and Taiwan

Marauder06

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I somehow doubt China is ever going to succeed in invading Taiwan
It's one of their top national priorities. They're feeling more and more confident in their abilities in and around the South China Sea. If they can't get Taiwan to come over through the democratic process, they will simply wait a few more years until they have near-parity with us, OR they will go sooner, if they perceive extreme weakness in the US.
 

Devildoc

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It's one of their top national priorities. They're feeling more and more confident in their abilities in and around the South China Sea. If they can't get Taiwan to come over through the democratic process, they will simply wait a few more years until they have near-parity with us, OR they will go sooner, if they perceive extreme weakness in the US.
How do you see that going? Seriously curious. How would Taiwan react? What would we do?
 

Gordus

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It's one of their top national priorities. They're feeling more and more confident in their abilities in and around the South China Sea. If they can't get Taiwan to come over through the democratic process, they will simply wait a few more years until they have near-parity with us, OR they will go sooner, if they perceive extreme weakness in the US.
I know. I just highly doub the feasibilty of such an operation.
 

Kheenbish

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It's one of their top national priorities. They're feeling more and more confident in their abilities in and around the South China Sea. If they can't get Taiwan to come over through the democratic process, they will simply wait a few more years until they have near-parity with us, OR they will go sooner, if they perceive extreme weakness in the US.
Agree with Gordus. Though this is a likely scenario with all the recent "flights" done by China in the AOR, I don't believe China is ready to make the move for some time. They'd have to fully take control of Hong Kong, then muster up the strength to actually take Taiwan considering we have been bolstering up their defenses lately. Additionally, talking to many Chinese individuals they consider Taiwan to still be part of China and I don't think would agree to a full scale invasion. China plans 100 years out, I don't think reaction attacks without a concrete plan on this scale would be executed.
 

chickenrappa

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It's funny that this came up because I read an article about this a while back, and heard a theory. The theory was that if China was to invade Taiwan, they'd have a hellish time of pulling it off, between coalition assistance from the US and Japan that can show up within 24 hours, then they'd basically be boned, but the plan was broken down like this, it basically talked about how Taiwan has 13 beaches, all of which are in good enough condition to be targets of an amphibious landing, given that the Chinese Missile Strike the shit out of most of the Taiwanese defenses. But that's already apparently being remedied by the Taiwanese who are laying "razor wire nets, hook boards, skin-peeling planks, barbed wire fences, wire obstacles, spike strips, landmines, anti-tank barrier walls, anti-tank obstacles … bamboo spikes, felled trees, truck shipping containers, and junkyard cars." which could cause issues for anyone looking to look at an amphibious landing. They then broke down how the Taiwan Strait itself is very treacherous and plagued by Typhoons, high winds and fog. The only real gap in this is two four week windows in April or October where the weather would be good enough for a full scale "D-Day" style landing. I thought the theory was interesting enough to mention here, and I will include the article as well here: How Taiwan can defeat China in a war | Taiwan News But my 2 cents is basically, it probably will happen at one point, because China has been threatening for years, it's just a matter of when they'll decide to try it.
 

chickenrappa

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It's funny that this came up because I read an article about this a while back, and heard a theory. The theory was that if China was to invade Taiwan, they'd have a hellish time of pulling it off, between coalition assistance from the US and Japan that can show up within 24 hours, then they'd basically be boned, but the plan was broken down like this, it basically talked about how Taiwan has 13 beaches, all of which are in good enough condition to be targets of an amphibious landing, given that the Chinese Missile Strike the shit out of most of the Taiwanese defenses. But that's already apparently being remedied by the Taiwanese who are laying "razor wire nets, hook boards, skin-peeling planks, barbed wire fences, wire obstacles, spike strips, landmines, anti-tank barrier walls, anti-tank obstacles … bamboo spikes, felled trees, truck shipping containers, and junkyard cars." which could cause issues for anyone looking to look at an amphibious landing. They then broke down how the Taiwan Strait itself is very treacherous and plagued by Typhoons, high winds and fog. The only real gap in this is two four week windows in April or October where the weather would be good enough for a full scale "D-Day" style landing. I thought the theory was interesting enough to mention here, and I will include the article as well here: How Taiwan can defeat China in a war | Taiwan News But my 2 cents is basically, it probably will happen at one point, because China has been threatening for years, it's just a matter of when they'll decide to try it.
Since I am super dumb, and didn't even answer the question, I would say that us sending a large force to Iran and becoming involved in a full-scale war would probably be a motivator for China to look at seizing Taiwan if they think they can pull it off. But I also believe they'd look at chipping away at the paint until one of those bad weather free zones during the year, if we're still tied up, and then with all the paint gone, they'll take the best opportunity possible to go for Taiwan.
 

SpitfireV

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I don't think China will invade Taiwan; at least not in a military sense. They're working on strengthening the image of the PRC in ROC but that doesn't appear to be working so well at the moment. Economically trade is very one sided at it happens- if Chinese seized all the ROC businesses and rounded up the businessmen it would have a pretty strong effect on ROC. Even if the US is tied up with Iran there are still a lot of resources the US can throw at the area.

I think a blockade would be more likely at this stage than a full blown invasion. They can force a surrender that way but it's still incredibly risky. I don't know what the PRC has planned but I doubt an invasion is too high up the list.
 

Gunz

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I don't think China will invade Taiwan; at least not in a military sense. They're working on strengthening the image of the PRC in ROC but that doesn't appear to be working so well at the moment. Economically trade is very one sided at it happens- if Chinese seized all the ROC businesses and rounded up the businessmen it would have a pretty strong effect on ROC. Even if the US is tied up with Iran there are still a lot of resources the US can throw at the area.

I think a blockade would be more likely at this stage than a full blown invasion. They can force a surrender that way but it's still incredibly risky. I don't know what the PRC has planned but I doubt an invasion is too high up the list.

I agree. The Chinese are a patient and practical people. They are also astute gamblers.

The Taiwan Relations Act is rather ambiguous when it comes to the question of U.S. military support for the island in the event of offensive actions by the PRC. There are no guarantees we'd step in to help. But even with that ambiguity, and even in the event of our substantial involvement in a military action elsewhere, I don't think the PRC would risk it.

Like @Kheenbish mentions above, China thinks in terms of centuries, not months or years. Nothing has to happen in our lifetime as long as it happens in the lifetimes of our descendants. So, in the meantime they will plan strategically, through economics, diplomacy, intrigue, subterfuge, whatever...and when the time is right--say, when America is eventually weakened and gutted by socialism--they'll make their move.
 

Gordus

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I don't think China will invade Taiwan; at least not in a military sense. They're working on strengthening the image of the PRC in ROC but that doesn't appear to be working so well at the moment. Economically trade is very one sided at it happens- if Chinese seized all the ROC businesses and rounded up the businessmen it would have a pretty strong effect on ROC. Even if the US is tied up with Iran there are still a lot of resources the US can throw at the area.

I think a blockade would be more likely at this stage than a full blown invasion. They can force a surrender that way but it's still incredibly risky. I don't know what the PRC has planned but I doubt an invasion is too high up the list.
In my eyes that is the only realistic way China could possibly win.

A blockade, starve the Taiwanese population. Force their surrender without risking so much bloodshed. However I don't think the Taiwanese would surrender in just a matter of months.

If it really came down to a full blown military operation, then let's break it down. No outside involvment. So Taiwan is on it's own.

China has a big advantive in satellites.

IIRC China has a lot of ballistic missiles including SLCM/BMs. I suspect more than Taiwan would ever be able to intercept. Major targets would be aistrips, both military and possibly also civilian, bases and ASM and AA systems.

IIRC Taiwan uses it's vast mountain ranges for some of military instalations and probably has material and aircraft safely stored inside the mountains.
However disabling the strips and bases should more than suffice to severely limit if not completly ground all Taiwanese air assets, at least in terms of planes. Helicopters would still be a threat.

Even if China established total air supremacy and eliminated much of the primary defences, I think it would come at a great cost. Losses may be catastrophic for the Chinese airforce.

The Chinese Navy would face a dramaticaly inferior Taiwanese counterpart. Taiwan's options are rather very limited there. It can try to keep it's much smaller navy safe from major engagements or have it involved right away to defend the coastline and islands to the west, and contribute to protecting air space to some degree. So mainly shore based actions. I don't see it's capital vessels survive long in open waters facing so many enemy subs alone.

While taking out as many defences and aircraft as possible, the first obvious stage for a main land invasion should be to capture all the smaller islands and construct make shift assembly, supply bases and airstrips to use for operations from different angles. MIght be very useful for the deployment of army air assault brigades. It might also be totaly sufficient to focus only on the occupation of said islands, and then negotiate a ceasefire. Could be a much smarter move on the long run. China would establish proper bases surrounding Taiwan and prepare for following stages, in relative peace over the next months / years. That is if the Taiwanese accepted such terms. They might be pressured to do so by a blockade. However I think that unlikely.

China currently has a specialized landing force of about 12.000 Marines according to wiki. It can seemingly muster two divisions of paratroopers, however the PLAAF is supposedly only able to airlift some 11.000 men at a time. Said troops have to reach their destination first. Might come at a great cost. But let's assume the Chinese land all their assets unharmed. They would be dramaticaly outnumbered and outgunned in almost every scenario when attacking the main land, even if supported by army air assault brigades. Those forces would heavily rely on the support of Chinese navy and airfoce. Otherwise the Taiwanese will answer with greater numbers and local firepower. They will in all likelyhood have mobilized and recruited more people at that point.
Those numbers could naturaly also be complete bs so if anyone got better sources and input, please share.

I just don't think that China could simply assemble all it's vessels to carry tens of thousands of troops to Taiwan's beaches in one go and repeat. The logistics and loss of life would be insane imo.
 

Gordus

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I'd expect initial Chinese landings forces to be carried and supported by mostly light vehicles, while facing basicaly everything Taiwan can throw at them with home advantige and good quality anti-armor weapons. That small force of elite Chinese troops would likely be brutaly mauled or wholly defeated before China is able to land more substantial numbers and heavier equipment.
 

R.Caerbannog

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This is me spitballing, but we can cripple the PRC's military before they even get on their ships and planes. Create enough dissent and havoc in their part of the world and the excursionary forces the PRC built up will be turned inward. Right now, the PRC is not as unified as they make themselves out to be. There is a lot of internal dissent in China, it's also how Xi was able to gather as much power as he did.

If we really want to stop 'Mainland China's' expansion we need to stop trading with them. MC has an excess of single males, widespread food insecurity, food pollution, corruption, bankrupt pensions, unsecure energy/resource supply routes, etc. The PRC's house in in disarray, hence their police state. Cut China's revenue streams, kill/imprison/deport their spies, scientists, & exchange students, and China's house of cards will start to crumble.

You can't innovate when you're best people are dead or rotting away.
 

Devildoc

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I think if China was to surround and quarantine the island the whole world would lash out. I don't think China would do that. The economic sanctions alone would cripple their economy to the point that they would resemble the 1800s. I also think at that point some non -Chinese subs in the strait would be engaging in target practice.
 

ThunderHorse

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I've war-gamed this one out quite a bit. Our Navy and Air Force are not in the numbers they once were. China has a lot expendables. If they were to seize the Island it would likely look Kings Landing after Denaerys heard the bells. The number of missiles targeting governmental and military facilities there are, well they're in the thousands. The Chinese have to continued to expand their blue water and amphibious capabilities.

If we had to commit a third of our naval capacity and a significant portion of our Air Force to fuck with Iran over whatever they've got a helluva time to re-deploy to the South China Sea. China doesn't have a lot of friends in the region, but the naval capabilities of Vietnam and the Philippines are nominal at best. You'd need Japan and Korea fully deployed to counter and push them back. Now, Japan has been building out their Naval Capacity for years. But would Japan and Korea see this as their fight? Would Australia who has a small but very competent Navy deploy? Would India take up this fight?

This would not be like fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq the same time.
 
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