China and Taiwan

Doofus

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The way I look at it China sees Taiwan as a territory when history says other wise. China expands infiltrates and enforce their Ideologies and laws on people when it sees fit.IMO the Iran build up is like a play action pass for the Chinese in some type of way.
 

CQB

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The issue is greater than Taiwan. The PRC regards Tibet & Hong Kong, along with Taiwan as rebel provinces which have to be returned. There is also the Second Island Chain, which stops at the western tip of Irian Jaya. Drop a line directly south & where do you end up? (That's funny, last time I looked there was a Chinese lease on the port, the only major port that links the Indian/Pacific). Also, given the PRCs' propensity for debt trap diplomacy, the island nations of the entire western Pacific haven't fallen into this piece of economic entrapment, if they that haven't already.
 
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Flagg

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The issue is greater than Taiwan. The PRC regards Tibet & Hong Kong, along with Taiwan as rebel provinces which have to be returned. There is also the Second Island Chain, which stops at the western tip of Irian Jaya. Drop a line directly south & where do you end up. (That's funny, last time I looked there was a Chinese lease on the port, the only major port that links the Indian/Pacific). Also, given the PRCs' propensity for debt trap diplomacy, the island nations of the entire western Pacific have to not fall into this piece of economic entrapment, or those that haven't already.
Kenya may be about to lose some major infrastructure assets.

Cambodia has China debt issues as well.

Southwest Pacific, like Fiji and Solomon Islands have been on the board for a while.

Solomon Islands was one of the last vestiges of the China/Taiwan

My guess with Taiwan is that China would strongly prefer taking Taiwan back without a single shot fired, or as few fired as possible.

I see most of their strategy as economic/political warfare.

Civil military fusion is much, much stronger and more granular/unified with China.
 

Marauder06

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I think if China was to surround and quarantine the island the whole world would lash out. I don't think China would do that. The economic sanctions alone would cripple their economy to the point that they would resemble the 1800s. I also think at that point some non -Chinese subs in the strait would be engaging in target practice.
I don’t think “the world” would do anything without the US. If the US doesn’t act, no one else has the capability + will to do anything other than make strongly worded statements.
 

Flagg

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I don’t think “the world” would do anything without the US. If the US doesn’t act, no one else has the capability + will to do anything other than make strongly worded statements.
0

Agreed.

But in having said that, I don’t see a realistic/likely scenario where China invades Taiwan.

Absorb over 10/20 years? Yes.

Invade over 10/20 days? No.

If I had to guess at future Chinese kinetic action it would be a 1983 Grenada-like action to display China’s return to the global stage, but with external distraction motivations more akin to the Argentine junta invading the Falklands in 1982.

Started on a Friday after global markets close, gains consolidated, and global markets assured by Sunday evening, but continuing to be harvested for external distraction. A bit like the 2016 Turkish coup.....except 100% likelihood of success.

I think China’s strategy towards Taiwan is not too different from it’s strategy towards the US:

Very long-term, very slow, below the threshold of public detectability to deter counter-mission...patient like an anaconda, not an obvious strike like a cobra.

More Sun Tzu, less Clausewitz.

Just my 0.02c
 

Kheenbish

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If everyone can tear themselves away from their cigars & etc., what's happening in Hong Kong is brilliant, if you'd care to notice. The Hong Kongers are serving it up to the PRC in spades, this is even better than the Umbrella Revolution.
It's a brilliant example of the holes in China's economy and control. It goes to show that even though China owns this piece of land, the people don't see themselves as under the PRCs rule. This is a good example of how the takeover of Taiwan would pan out, post China's takeover of Taiwan.
 

R.Caerbannog

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Cut off their rice & soybean imports and/or start gouging the crap outta them. Treat any multinationals like traitors and freeze assets if they keep doing business with the Chicoms.

Our felcher politicians and multinationals companies have essentially sold us out in exchange for access to Chinese markets, cheap labor, and the illusion of global stability. Enemies within and enemies without.
 
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R.Caerbannog

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Random thought. China has it's sights set on Taiwan, but for them to take the island a bunch of stars have to line up. Instead of just shoring up Taiwan, it might help if we start throwing resources at the dissenters in the PRC (mainly Hong Kong). If we can't destroy the PRC, via conventional means, containing them and letting a resentful population tear them apart might be a better answer.

Not sure what the topography of Hong Kong is, but I know that big chunk of wealth from the mainland has been squirreled away there. I'm also pretty sure that the kids leading the protests in HK are going to end up in Chi-Com concentration camps or mass graves. With the amount of physical and financial assets at play, in HK, I don't think the PRC can afford to raze the territory.

I know that HK is a 'domestic dispute' for the PRC, I'm just thinking that it might be beneficial for everyone if our Asian allies could lend the kids in HK a hand. The PRC has been starting fires all around the world and having us put them out, we should do the same to them.

Probably a dumb idea.
 

Jaknight

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Do the protests in Hong Kong really matter in the long run? Isn’t HK going back to China? won’t the PRC just do what it wants when HK returns to them?
 
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