Covid-19

ThunderHorse

Verified Military
Joined
Feb 22, 2012
Messages
6,183
Location
Maricopa Basin
@Salamie3 has the right of it, I think it was when Weinstein was talking about New Zealand's success being able to do just that due to having much fewer people.

He's a biologist, though - you might have been confusing him with Michael Osterholm.
It was Osterholm and you can dig through this thread as people have varied opinions of him.
____________

So we get a vaccine on the market in rapid time...but because it's going to be available under the Trump Administration it's "too early"? Why does everything have to be political?

 

Locksteady

Member
Joined
Feb 14, 2012
Messages
664
It was Osterholm and you can dig through this thread as people have varied opinions of him.
Osterholm was indeed repeatedly referenced in this thread, but what @Cookie_ is talking about is correctly attributed to Weinstein.

The main takeaway from Osterholm's interview on Rogan was that "people don't realize this is going to last for at least several months". That was near the beginning of the shutdowns IIRC.

Weinstein was sometime in the summer, and he was the one saying that if the US had done a complete instead of half-assed shutdown for a few weeks that it could have been eradicated like in New Zealand but that it wasn't nearly as easy to do so.
 

Blizzard

Member
Joined
Dec 10, 2012
Messages
2,604
I’ll never be able to articulate this the way the scientist did that I just listen to, but doing the shut down thing only slows the spreading of the virus, it does not kill it.

At the end of the day, we are trying to outsmart nature. Simon says, that never works.
So, how about this guy (posted earlier in this thread):

Opinion | Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?

Dr. David Katz: Coronavirus vaccine or herd immunity are only ways life can fully return to normal


Looking back, was this guy wrong? I don't think so. He's not perfect but he's probably been the most "right" of the "experts" I've heard.
 
Last edited:

Devildoc

Verified Military
Joined
Nov 3, 2015
Messages
6,016
Location
Durham, NC
I’ll never be able to articulate this the way the scientist did that I just listen to, but doing the shut down thing only slows the spreading of the virus, it does not kill it.

At the end of the day, we are trying to outsmart nature. Simon says, that never works.

That was part of the point of 'flattening the curve' way back in March. But for a total, nationwide shutdown to work, everyone would need to lock in and isolate for about 6 weeks. Two weeks ain't gonna do spit.
 

Blizzard

Member
Joined
Dec 10, 2012
Messages
2,604
That was part of the point of 'flattening the curve' way back in March. But for a total, nationwide shutdown to work, everyone would need to lock in and isolate for about 6 weeks. Two weeks ain't gonna do spit.
To me, Dr Katz in the video I posted above hit the nail on the head, at least from a common sense perspective. Even a lockdown doesn't stop the virus or it's impacts, it just moves the dates (by the way Bill Maher is a moron).
 
Last edited:

Cookie_

SOF Support
Joined
Dec 19, 2017
Messages
1,393
I honestly probably just combined the statements from Weinstien and Osterholm, but same general idea.

Could a virus be stopped by massive shutdowns?

For sure.

Would we ever get a level of compliance that it would be a feasible course of action?

Probably not, unless it was something with a truly outrageous infection/death rate, like if Avian flu came back with transmisibility rates as high as COVID/common flu. Think that had a mortality rate ~60%.
 

Blizzard

Member
Joined
Dec 10, 2012
Messages
2,604
It's kind of interesting...

With the announcement from Pfizer and BioNTech today stating it's vaccine is testing 90% effective, and other trials from companies like AstraZeneca and J&J also entering late stages, it appears Trump will deliver on his promise for a vaccine by year end.

Every major news outlet, along with others, scoffed at this promise when made during his RNC speech. I'm absolutely 100% convinced Biden would've never pushed this along the way it has.
 

Blizzard

Member
Joined
Dec 10, 2012
Messages
2,604
So we get a vaccine on the market in rapid time...but because it's going to be available under the Trump Administration it's "too early"? Why does everything have to be political?

It's because it happened on Trump's watch. It was an impossibility.

As I mentioned in my previous post. When Trump made his promise, he was openly scoffed at by the media. There is simply no way Biden would've accelerated it this way.

There are many things I don't care for when it comes to Trump. Yeah, he makes some stupid and mean Tweets. However, one key thing he does bring is the willingness to set stretch goals and challenge people to go make them happen. Leaders need to have the willingness and mindset to achieve the impossible. Trump has that mindset and we're fortunate he did. He's done this with more than just the virus as well. So, kudos to him.
 

AWP

Formerly Known as Freefalling
Administrator
Joined
Sep 8, 2006
Messages
16,704
Location
Not Afghanistan
Someone break it down Barney-style for me: how would a total lockdown fix our CV-19 problem? We lockdown, but then open it back up and the disease is gone? It seems that we're just kicking the can down the road unless we 100% locked down the borders and managed to become an island.
 

Devildoc

Verified Military
Joined
Nov 3, 2015
Messages
6,016
Location
Durham, NC
Someone break it down Barney-style for me: how would a total lockdown fix our CV-19 problem? We lockdown, but then open it back up and the disease is gone? It seems that we're just kicking the can down the road unless we 100% locked down the borders and managed to become an island.

A virus is much simpler genomically than bacteria. It needs a host in order to survive and replicate. The theory is if everyone is isolated and no one is out spreading it then it would kill itself off after probably two life cycles or generations. Would it happen? Probably not. But that's the theory.
 

GOTWA

Half Faceless Man
Verified Military
Joined
Jul 3, 2017
Messages
1,071
A virus is much simpler genomically than bacteria. It needs a host in order to survive and replicate. The theory is if everyone is isolated and no one is out spreading it then it would kill itself off after probably two life cycles or generations. Would it happen? Probably not. But that's the theory.
Essentially, the entire world would have to do it, yes?
 

Devildoc

Verified Military
Joined
Nov 3, 2015
Messages
6,016
Location
Durham, NC
Essentially, the entire world would have to do it, yes?

The more you could make this happen, theoretically the more chance of eradication. You can't even get a single county anywhere in this country to do it, much less a state. But even then, let's say the entire country did it, Canada doesn't do it, Mexico sure as hell doesn't do it, they keep international flights coming in, it starts spreading all over again, so yes, every country would have to do it.
 

AWP

Formerly Known as Freefalling
Administrator
Joined
Sep 8, 2006
Messages
16,704
Location
Not Afghanistan
So in other words, to defeat the virus we would have to do something that is practically impossible. That being the case, why do people even push this narrative?

"We should totally go back to the moon. All we have to do is launch a big enough rocket at it. Look how big it is, we can't miss!"
 
Top