Saudi-Iran Conflict

ThunderHorse

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I saw the NYT reported it first. Would be nice if these assholes just held their copy and allow the operation to happen instead of just trying to get some clicks. If I can't trust the DoD or White House to shut up...you'd hope some other, "smarter" people would do it for them...I guess not.
 

lindy

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I saw the NYT reported it first. Would be nice if these assholes just held their copy and allow the operation to happen instead of just trying to get some clicks. If I can't trust the DoD or White House to shut up...you'd hope some other, "smarter" people would do it for them...I guess not.
But he’s so mentally unstable that he’ll bumble us into a war with Iran? I’m confused: he’s either a lunatic with an itchy trigger finger who wants to exterminate all the brown people or he’s a mentally unstable fascist dictator who just wants wage war.
 

Gunz

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Just saw on CNN that Trump authorized strikes but then "pulled back immediately". Whatever that's supposed to mean and how much we can trust CNN.

It smacks of Trump's exaggerated interpretation of Ronald Reagan's sound-check: "Bombing begins in five minutes..." In other words, talk openly about retaliatory strikes, watch the Iranians soil themselves, then act like you got talked out of it.
 

AWP

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I'd be willing to bet that we pulled back on strikes because we had to sort out targeting, proportionality, etc. If something doesn't cook off in the next 24 hours I will be surprised.

And no, I'm not gleaning any of this from work, just stepping through timelines and logic. Creating the ATO will be a massive undertaking in its own right.
 

Gunz

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I'd be willing to bet that we pulled back on strikes because we had to sort out targeting, proportionality, etc. If something doesn't cook off in the next 24 hours I will be surprised.

And no, I'm not gleaning any of this from work, just stepping through timelines and logic. Creating the ATO will be a massive undertaking in its own right.
When you say stuff like this, deferring to your experience, I start heading for the bomb shelter.
 

Devildoc

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POTUS this morning on the news said military action is the last thing he wants, he campaigned on getting us out of "endless wars in the middle east." Not sure if he is pushing back-channel diplomacy, sanctions, arm-twisting, all of the above or what, but I am having a hard time reading the tea leaves, er, 4D chess.
 

Gordus

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Don't think it's gonna escalate over the downing of a single drone. But it does call for proportionate retaliation if it was international waters, imo.

I admit that I would also not be against putting an end to the contineous antagonistic behaviour and shadow wars of Iran. Following the incident they have announced to speed up their nuclear programs and I genuinely doubt it's all for good intentions.

Doesn't have to be a full blown war. Would probably also not be the best decision if you want to be re-elected.

But there are probably other ways to make them reconsider their policies, and yeah I think that's necessary.
 

AWP

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When you say stuff like this, deferring to your experience, I start heading for the bomb shelter.
Even something as "simple" as hitting an IRCG naval base and a few SAM sites, especially the one that downed the Triton is what I envision. You could go "whole hog" with a response including taking our their nuclear facilities. OR...a small strike that goad's Iran into something larger and THEN go after the big targets. There are a lot of different ways to go.

Think of the timeline too: Meetings CONUS yesterday which is the nighttime here.Planners can have options, but until the word comes down they have an "80% solution" so to speak. By the time the meeting breaks up, the sun's rising or about to rise over here...and we wouldn't strike during the day. An overnight pause in the US gives CENTCOM time to pull together options for the JCS and SECDEF to present to POTUS.

You also don't wait a week before retaliating, so you have to go within the first 24-48 hours, maybe 72, before your window passes.

We'll see. Maybe there is a desire to do absolutely nothing militarily and we'll sort out sanctions or something. My money's on the F-35A's combat debut (Marines already took the B into combat)....but I really hope I'm wrong.

ETA: Fox is saying we were ready to go last night and almost did. Interesting. Targeting and planning cells must have been humping...
 
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757

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“The Iranian national leadership was furious with the tactical commander who shot down the drone because they clearly did not want that provocation to take place,” he said. “Based on those facts, new information to the president, he called off the strike. And I don’t think there will be a re-attack based on now the conclusion by the intelligence community that this was not the national leadership’s intention to conduct this provocation.” -Source
 

Devildoc

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Were they really or is this just a way for deconfliction? 150 lives seems really high for a few radar and SAM sites.
If I had to take a scientific wild-ass guess, I would think that they are legit concerned that someone had an itchy trigger finger. You don't see a carrier strike group and all of that US military hardware and watch American news and not be a little nervous.
 

Blizzard

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Eh, fuck it. Proportional is for pussies. Launch one massive strike to just wipe out their Navy, which is mostly PT boats, then call it a day. Solves a lot of problems and gets rid of the mosquitoes. I hate mosquitoes. 😊
 
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Gunz

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Eh, fuck it. Proportional is for pussies. Launch one massive strike to just wipe out their Navy, which is mostly PT boats, then call it a day. Solves a lot of problems and gets rid of the mosquitoes. I hate mosquitoes. 😊
They fire a Strela at one of our drones...and miss...then it's only fair that we respond with an excessive strike package. I suggest taking out all their nuclear installations and capabilities...and get back in time for Happy Hour.

Great minds think alike. Navy and nukes on the ATO.
 

DocCallahan

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Oh boy I bet deployment is going to be frustrating with all this news. I can only imagine family trying to contact with concerns over all the sporadic news.

Seems like a very split administration from my perspective. Big wigs in the pent want to slam Iran and Trump is worried about having a war smear his re election. Either way it goes, we’re chilling.
 
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