The "All Things Politics" Thread (please review page 1)

Florida173

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Depending on how much time the person has to run the program, quality of the pictures the program is pulling from and how closely in skin tone, etc the two subjects are. That uncanny valley is a thing of the past.

Running a simple GANS model only takes a few minutes on my system. We also have ways to identify deepfaked stuff now. The link on the other side of this article is to an audio file though. I believe audio is quite a bit easier to detect manipulation. Just looking at the waterfall should expose some anomalies in the junctures.
 

Locksteady

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Throw in how it's becoming increasingly easy to fake audio and it'll he a real headache to prove this is "real" if they choose to just say it is.
Once deepfake type technology passes the uncanny valley it'll be even more difficult.

*Not saying the audio is fake, just that I think we'll see it happen soonish in the future*
Agreed.

I also think if it turns out fake, for many it won't matter if it reinforces their preexisting feelings. It may not matter as much because the perception damage and suspicion raising will have been done, which arguably could be the 'among the stars' compromise for not reaching the 'moon' of avoiding detection.

More generally, I think the proliferation of this technology will eventually condition people to care less about audio/video evidence due to the effort involved in deciding each time whether or not it is real.
 

Cookie_

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Depending on how much time the person has to run the program, quality of the pictures the program is pulling from and how closely in skin tone, etc the two subjects are. That uncanny valley is a thing of the past.
It's still the eyes and edges of the mouth that aren't quite right, but it is really getting impressive.
Running a simple GANS model only takes a few minutes on my system. We also have ways to identify deepfaked stuff now. The link on the other side of this article is to an audio file though. I believe audio is quite a bit easier to detect manipulation. Just looking at the waterfall should expose some anomalies in the junctures.
My worry about this stuff isn't that it can be detected as fake, but the fact that the average person won't care once it is.

How many people actually change their minds if a story gets retracted?
 

GOTWA

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Agreed.

I also think if it turns out fake, for many it won't matter if it reinforces their preexisting feelings. It may not matter as much because the perception damage and suspicion raising will have been done, which arguably could be the 'among the stars' compromise for not reaching the 'moon' of avoiding detection.

More generally, I think the proliferation of this technology will eventually condition people to care less about audio/video evidence due to the effort involved in deciding each time whether or not it is real.
It's already conditioned you to think that. Your response to the clip is to move to a discussion about deepfake possibilities, not that it could be real.

Keep trolling on.
 

Florida173

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After watching the Tony Bobulinski interview, I would say that the Biden family, including Joe, is 100% compromised. If it is in any way factual, and the only problem with the POTUS is that people think he is racist, I would take the racist over Biden. We've had plenty of actual racist presidents in the past. One was just commented on as being a great president for blacks because he passed a lot of civil right bills.
 

Blizzard

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In re: to early voting, I have a theory...

Of those concerned about the virus (support mask mandates, lockdowns, etc), many/most would probably fall in the political category of Democrat and many/most would opt to mail in ballots or vote early.

Those self identifying as Republicans or non-Democrat and not supportive of lockdowns, mask mandates, etc., many/most will still opt to vote in person.

Clearly that's a generalization, but, If that theory is true, the number of mail in and early ballots received vs the numbers that show up at the polls on election day may provide some insight on how things will turn out.
 

757

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@Blizzard I know a yuuuuge number (yuge is defined as: somewhere between 60-80 people) of "conservative/voting for trump begrudgingly" individuals that have already voted because they think Election Day is going to be a zoo and their mind is already made up...so why wait?

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think you are making the point that, essentially, left leaning individuals are more likely to vote early while right leaning individuals are more likely to vote on election day? If I got that correct, I tend to agree. However, I think that this election (based partially on my own anecdotal experience + a healthy dose of Tim Pool's data analysis) will be closer to 50/50 than in previous elections (most likely still leaning left at the end of the day).

If my hunch is correct, I think Trump may be doing significantly better in the polls than it appears. I consider The Hill a relatively moderate spot for acquiring news (ok, it's my favorite spot...bite me :p) and one their most recent polling data/analysis opinions has Trump winning Bigly. Honestly, as somebody who will be voting in favor of Trump, I am excited for early November :D
 

ThunderHorse

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Well AOC thinks long lines for early voting is voter suppression...so I guess there's that. Since her party is in power wouldn't it be her party suppressing voters?

“There is no place in the United States of America where two, three, four hour waits to vote is acceptable," she said at a news conference Monday. "And just because it’s happening in a blue state doesn’t mean that it’s not voter suppression."

De Blasio, AOC chide NYC elections board over long waits for early voting
 

Salt USMC

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ThunderHorse

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Yes. And she is doing the correct thing by calling out her own state party in hopes of pressuring them to improve. Even though I don’t live in NY any more, that sounds like something I can get behind!
It's still not voter suppression. 90% of polling place workers are volunteers, it's not a question of "money" it's a question of Great Americans being able to donate their time for the cause.
 

Cookie_

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It's still not voter suppression. 90% of polling place workers are volunteers, it's not a question of "money" it's a question of Great Americans being able to donate their time for the cause.

I don't think it's fair to call it suppression, I think Texas is a better example of that currently. I do think it's fair to say that we should work on improving the process so it can move more quickly.

Maybe our polling locations shouldn't depend on 90% of the staff being volunteers?
 

Blizzard

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@Blizzard I know a yuuuuge number (yuge is defined as: somewhere between 60-80 people) of "conservative/voting for trump begrudgingly" individuals that have already voted because they think Election Day is going to be a zoo and their mind is already made up...so why wait?

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think you are making the point that, essentially, left leaning individuals are more likely to vote early while right leaning individuals are more likely to vote on election day? If I got that correct, I tend to agree. However, I think that this election (based partially on my own anecdotal experience + a healthy dose of Tim Pool's data analysis) will be closer to 50/50 than in previous elections (most likely still leaning left at the end of the day).

If my hunch is correct, I think Trump may be doing significantly better in the polls than it appears. I consider The Hill a relatively moderate spot for acquiring news (ok, it's my favorite spot...bite me :p) and one their most recent polling data/analysis opinions has Trump winning Bigly. Honestly, as somebody who will be voting in favor of Trump, I am excited for early November :D
Yes, we basically agree but I'll frame it slightly different...

There have always been early voters on both sides and there always be. This year there are even more, for obvious reasons (virus). Similarly, there will always be people on both sides that vote in person.

It's my contention, that many of those Democrats fear the virus, already made up their minds, and will not vote in person in "large" numbers. They mailed in their ballots.

As a result, large lines on election day may be a positive indicator for Republicans.
 

Jaknight

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Agreed.

I also think if it turns out fake, for many it won't matter if it reinforces their preexisting feelings. It may not matter as much because the perception damage and suspicion raising will have been done, which arguably could be the 'among the stars' compromise for not reaching the 'moon' of avoiding detection.

More generally, I think the proliferation of this technology will eventually condition people to care less about audio/video evidence due to the effort involved in deciding each time whether or not it is real.
And if the video is true?
 

AWP

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The beauty of it is that a video could show up right now, released by a candidate's party showing the candidate machinegunning babies, stomping their skulls flat, and then eating the remains...votes won't change. We're at a point where threads like this one are irrelevant. Minds are made up whether the votes are cast or not.
 

Marauder06

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Very interesting article in Quillette ref. heuristics, specfically "availability cascades" and how we come to espouse the views that we do:

How Availability Cascades are Shaping our Politics

excerpt:


We are the company we keep. Although our beliefs and actions are personal, they are often heavily affected by the people around us. When everyone else seems to be thinking the same way, we may succumb to crowd pressure rather than thinking for ourselves.

When all available information seems to indicate that everyone is falling in line with a certain belief, we may be under the influence of an “availability cascade.” Today, our politics and public discourse are being poisoned by availability cascades. Thanks partly to partisan domination of the media and academia, many people are being pressured into publicly espousing beliefs that are not their own.
 

Devildoc

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Very interesting article in Quillette ref. heuristics, specfically "availability cascades" and how we come to espouse the views that we do:

How Availability Cascades are Shaping our Politics

excerpt:

A step-cousin to bias confirmation; looking for people or data that supports your position. Interesting take on how contrasting opinion can shape that. BTW, here's another Poli Sci 101 word for you: psephology. I pulled out my poli sci text that I have kept now for almost 34 years, and it's not in there. Just heard this yesterday, even though I had a semester studying the 'science' almost 34 years ago.

Regarding voting early vice in-person, the data are clear; historically, early voting favors the democrats, and in-person favors republicans. It's been that way for a long time. I think the hypothesis that this year there's a lot of early voter by both parties (but still heavily skewed democrat) is for the reasons mentioned by @Blizzard .
 
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