The Artificial Intelligence Problem (or not)

4859

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A load check isn't about weight though it's about checking the securement to make sure your load isn't going anywhere. You should also be checking tires while stopped.
Also easily done 'good enough' via sensors in the cargo area.

You guys seem to be hung up on the fact that it's not going to be as good, or even anywhere near as good as the real deal.

Of course it's not. Never has been. ESPECIALLY not when it first starts. It's cheaper, faster and brings in more profit with less overhead. And that's what matters to them. Not RP feeding his family
 

DC

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How does that physically check straps for wear or tighten them? How can it see the load has shifted and needs more securement thrown? Ever carried a load if round steel? It's hinky as shit and you have to be very careful.
I am very familiar with what are saying as for loads go. Again technology with figure it out. There are self tightening mechanisms. Maybe an block system to correct load shift. Who knows? I’m saying someday all this will come to pass. Unless Ragnarok happens first😉
 

medicchick

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Then engine shutdown technology and driver take over. Remember as AI begins in one arena it will spread to others.
In your scenario you still have a driver, in the other just local workers who loaded it. You are talking teaming with an AI truck, not 100% replacement.

I'm not stubborn or stupid, I know AI is the future but so many out there want to have it now without thinking it through. I have appreciated the civil debate however, other forums it degrades to kindergarten level fingers in ears because AI is the bestest ever and it means I can never leave my chair...lol There is no current good answer but seeing what is tossed around is fun.
 

DC

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In your scenario you still have a driver, in the other just local workers who loaded it. You are talking teaming with an AI truck, not 100% replacement.

I'm not stubborn or stupid, I know AI is the future but so many out there want to have it now without thinking it through. I have appreciated the civil debate however, other forums it degrades to kindergarten level fingers in ears...lol
Humans will always be involved somewhere. We are a very greedy organism. Our lust for power pushes us to it. The future will be really rich and really poor. Don’t forget humanity is impatient. They want it now for power. They can have it.

PS @medicchick your are far from stupid...stubborn aren’t we all👍🏾
 
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4859

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In your scenario you still have a driver, in the other just local workers who loaded it. You are talking teaming with an AI truck, not 100% replacement.

I'm not stubborn or stupid, I know AI is the future but so many out there want to have it now without thinking it through. I have appreciated the civil debate however, other forums it degrades to kindergarten level fingers in ears...lol There is no current good answer but seeing what is tossed around is fun.
Well we all know why this forum is so exceptional compared to the others.

I don't want it at all. Not in the commercial market at least.

I don't feel the gains for the corporations are going to be worth the human cost.

I mean like I pointed out earlier the babysitter for that ai team up isn't going to be paid anywhere near what people who actually drive the trucks are being paid. And they will either have to accept another huge cut in pay, like the 30% after the deregulations of the motor carrier act of 1980, or they will be replaced by less skilled and cheaper truck babysitters.
 
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DC

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Re the OP with relation to military applications. AI is the future of warfare but vulnerable to NEMP/NNEMP. Humans have to know how to fight when the battlespace goes dark.
You would hope but complacency is the American way.
 

Box

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AI wont get a DUI
AI can be programed follow all traffic laws
AI wont make false insurance claims
AI wont beat a spouse
AI wont sexually assault another AI
AI wont hog the mic'

AI wont give you a hug that brightens up a gloomy day
 

RackMaster

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Larry Sharpe the Libertarian Governor nominee in NY State had a great idea for AI vehicles and infrastructure maintenance. License out advertising space, on bridges, highways, etc. and have the maintenance as part of the contract. Then say Amazon has it, let them build separated lanes or complete freeways for AI only. He went into it with Joe Rogan.


Larry Sharpe For Governor of New York 2018
 

4859

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Larry Sharpe the Libertarian Governor nominee in NY State had a great idea for AI vehicles and infrastructure maintenance. License out advertising space, on bridges, highways, etc. and have the maintenance as part of the contract. Then say Amazon has it, let them build separated lanes or complete freeways for AI only. He went into it with Joe Rogan.


Larry Sharpe For Governor of New York 2018
That could be very lucrative and effective for the very rich involved.

So.....

What about RP?
 

medicchick

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AI wont get a DUI
AI can be programed follow all traffic laws
AI wont make false insurance claims
AI wont beat a spouse
AI wont sexually assault another AI
AI wont hog the mic'

AI wont give you a hug that brightens up a gloomy day
You mean I'll no longer know if it has it's panties in?:ack:
 

medicchick

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That could be very lucrative and effective for the very rich involved.

So.....

What about RP?
I let him sleep in before the Five Finger Death Punch concert tonight. I'm sure he'll be along shortly.
 

Ranger Psych

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You guys aren't getting it. This whole ground crew idea is a non-starter for 80% of shipping across the US.

The shipper makes the product.
The receiver wants the product.

NEITHER OF THEM WANT ANYTHING MORE TO DO WITH GETTING IT THERE THAN THEY HAVE TO.

Example,This load:

Montana Kitchen Sink.jpg

Ok, ya'll probably don't even see what you're looking at, because you guys are like every other shipper/receiver on the planet for the most part. Ignorant. It's not that you're stupid (and I'm not calling anyone that), but it's that you literally don't know the huge amount regulations that are accessible and in the open. You would rely on me, and my knowledge of the regulations for shipping, in order to make sure your stuff gets from A to B as desired and in the condition it was in when loaded. Pretty much the norm. What's an AI going to do? Display the FMCSA securement regulations on a display on the side and automatically open some boxes for load straps and chains? I think not.

fun fact: there's more commercial vehicle regulations than there are commercial aviation regulations.

If this had been loaded by the shipper and by the shipper only without any input from me, onto an AI pulling the flatbed, it would have rolled out the door illegally. He would have just had shit piled on with no way to secure it, it wouldn't have BEEN secured, and it would have pleasantly just gone out the gate and put a alloy spear through someone's windshield at the first bump.

There is no legal mechanism to find the shipper responsible for cargo misloading/packaging unless it's an in-depth hazmat inspection and even then, it's going to be a court battle. Everything as far as legal responsibility for the shipment itself and it's safe conduct from point A to B is on the driver, and on the company, depending on where it falls on the matrix of "who do we cite".

There's 3 entities involved in the whole shipment, and only 1 is criminally liable during the entire shipping process, so that 1 is going to make sure they can actually make sure the other 2 aren't trying to pull a fast one. That means you need a human as part of the shipment, and minimum wage isn't going to cut it. I have a former DOE OST broham who does civvie side nuclear transport. The amount of mislabeled, mispackaged shit is astounding and he gets paid the big bucks to ship that stuff, as he has to know ALL the regulations to be able to inspect, repackage as necessary, properly secure, and properly transport said cargo. Open deck is the same way, specific cargos need specific securement depending on weight, position, size, etc etc. Look at how people tie shit down in a pickup truck bed or on a regular utility trailer, then look at my trailer. Big difference between what you'd get minimum wage quality and what you get with a professional doing the job.

There's 24 different independent securements on that load to make sure that everything on that deck doesn't go anywhere. Chains, straps. Edge protection to make sure things don't cut straps. Edge protection to make sure chains don't damage stuff.

That deck is several thousand visual and tactile inspection points. What AI is going to do those? Expecting an AI to do that is literally expecting an AI to be able to JMPI a jumper. Good luck with that. How's a load sensor going to help in the middle of nowhere if it pings that something broke? Human will have seen it start to fray and protected it/replaced it, sensor is just a GO/NOGO thing. Now your AI truck is deadlined 200 miles from anywhere on the side of I-10, waiting for hours for a rescue crew to replace a fricking 2" strap. congrats, the truck's stopped. Now instead of making money it's costing money.

What ground crew is going to do those when it's the mass of shipping in the US, which is irregular freight from point A to B? What ground crew is going to be going to bumfuck Montana in the middle of farmland to a lat-long then unloading a new skidsteer and teaching the owner the basics, then loading their old one as a tradein?

The only way an AI truck could do my job is if it came with a T-800 to do the securement too.

It's hard enough to find all the drivers that the industry needs specifically because of the fact that they won't fucking pay us what we're worth... which is why I am an owner operator, I bill the same rate as the big guys but *I* make more because 1/4 or more of the load's rate isn't going to support corporate bullshit.

As it is, except for rare local positions, you aren't paid hourly at all. It's per mile you move cargo. The point of going AI trucking is to cut out the 1/4 - 1/3 of the load rate that goes to pay/insure the driver, and instead pocket it in the corporate pocket. You also don't understand the industry either, as 70% of the trucks on the road today are part of 10 or less truck fleets, with about half being straight owner ops, single human shows like myself. There's not going to be any small fleets or owner ops like myself buying an AI truck. That shit's going to be way more expensive than my rig now, and my rig now, new, is >$140k. Yep, my big rig costs more than a Maserati. How ya like me now?

Someone mentioned a human assistant. So you're going to have a human ride along, but not actually operate the vehicle, or otherwise cut their pay as the vehicle doesn't require their operation at all.... So we already discussed the point that going AI is intended to remove the human. Now you want to pay someone even MORE SHIT (plenty of drivers at megafleets are barely clearing a grand a week after taxes, with operation of the vehicle inherent in the job) and have them away from their home/family riding a truck they have no say in where it goes and isn't going to be stopping for piss breaks shits or anything else, because the whole point of going AI is being able to have a low cost vehicle going at the most aerodynamically efficient speed and configuration, across the US, nonstop, so your amazon dildos get to your doorstep in time for you to go fuck yourself.

Oh, and that last 3 word bit is what every driver in the industry right now would tell you if you told them now they're an AI bitch and getting paid half their current rate if not less.

Now fedex? UPS? That could be AI'ed relatively easy. I'm sure everyone who's driven past a wiggle wagon set of doubles/triples is completely comfortable with letting a computer handle a 100ft multi-pivot-point semi-stable combination vehicle on the roadways next to them at 70mph. But, they're doing distribution center to distribution center work, so they would own it wholly from A to Z and THERE they could have the human checks to make sure the robotruck can do it's thing. Except those humans would be Teamsters. Think Puerto Rico was bad with the truckers union striking after the hurricane? Pffft let's replace the vast majority of employees of the biggest (dirtiest) union in the USA with robots and see what happens.
 

Ranger Psych

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Who pays for toll roads, infrastructure now? Taxes. Not a new novel idea really. Enforcement? Cameras are used widely for toll roads.
Truckers now pay more taxes and fees than ever. Then we allow trucks from mexico freely use our roads without paying anything. I digress.
IFTA. They can't cross the border without being IFTA compliant. Every mile they run in every state they run in is logged and they pay accordingly. Just like how every state I go through gets their per mile taxes. Also why I don't do toll roads as a general rule, I'm already being taxed for every mile I drive, now you want to charge me per mile twice? FAAAA Q
 

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Went to the nvidia gpu conference here in dc a couple of weeks ago. Some really great things going on with regards to ML and deep neural networks bring processed through GPU architecture. I'm pretty excited with the end to end data science infrastructure through rapids.

In my opinion.. People afraid of AI obviously don't know what it is.

Also.. Did you guys know AI is responsible for over 86% of Netflix watched shows and over a third of amazon purchases?
 

DC

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IFTA. They can't cross the border without being IFTA compliant. Every mile they run in every state they run in is logged and they pay accordingly. Just like how every state I go through gets their per mile taxes. Also why I don't do toll roads as a general rule, I'm already being taxed for every mile I drive, now you want to charge me per mile twice? FAAAA Q
Border runners should stop in a staging area and off load to you guys.
Toll roads were a comparison to create a similar system for just AI vehicles.
AI is here. Can’t stop it. Skynet is coming...
 

Dienekes

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Economically, you might be surprised at the effects of automation. Acemoglu and friends (prominent and incredibly prolific economist at MIT) found that automation actually has 2 mechanisms: substituting and complementing workers. Routine tasks are generally substituted while non-routine tasks complement workers. The effect this has is to really wheedle out the middle-skill job (read middle-class) generally because these are routine and not too complicated for machines like (data entry, going over documents, ordering new parts when your inventory gets below a certain level, etc.), but on the other hand, the more blue-collar jobs that are too complicated for robots are seeing increased returns to earnings and labor supply and the more complicated high-skill jobs, say a doctor, are being complemented aka making part of the job easier so that you can focus more of your efforts on the more human-touch necessary tasks are also making more money. So automation is good for low-skill and high-skill workers while bad for middle-skill workers.

Additionally, automation doesn't necessarily kill jobs and may, in fact, create higher paying jobs than the ones they replace as someone mentioned creative destruction. These systems are complex, especially the machines that require maintenance. One job I worked saw the CNC lathe down for a week because the representative that the servicing company sent out took that long to fix the machine. And I know this guy was a freaking expert on this thing because I talked to him about it. You'd be surprised how little it has been studied, but like I said, this guy the people he writes papers with have done a pretty interesting job.

As for the AI and robots, the type of integration people are talking about will take 40-60 years minimum in my mind because 1) the technology has to be there and 2) society needs sufficient conditions for certain things to happen and politically and culturally, these things take time. It took a long time for the car to effectively replace the horse just like it takes a long time for the most impressive technology to work its way past the big market makers to the smaller businesses that enable the damn market.

To the trucking industry assuming 30 years down the road, what about having a completely AI driven truck, having AI-driven logistics companies staff ground crews to hit all the loading and unloading operations at a given area of the city (industrial, commercial, etc.) since these are usually zoned similarly. Ex: 1 ground crew (2-4 person) hits all the stops in a X mile area for the Best Buys, Targets, Walmarts, etc. Then, have weigh stations staffed with a smaller 1-2 person checking crew for when sensors note some problem that isn't quite stop worthy, but could be adjusted. Finally, have a high-mobility crew transported by helicopter (with potentially a set number of helicopter landing zones every X number of miles on major ass highways which would be a popular infrastructure project for politicians) to the serious problems that require stopping. Likely assuming that Machine learning has penetrated to complement ATCs in deconflicting air space.
 

AWP

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Likely assuming that Machine learning has penetrated to complement ATCs in deconflicting air space.
Nearly the entire aviation industry would have to be AI for that to work. AI aircraft, AI "controllers," AI schedulers, etc. You'd also have to do the cutover nearly simulataneously becuase integrating humans and AI would pose a nightmare. Where AI could maybe help is automating the flow of information, but then you're placing aviation safety in the "hands" of some code which would have to be rigorously tested. Aviation software is already expensive because of the niche users, tacking on the overhead to create and certify AI software would make it horrendously expensive.

And all of this is for US airspace, now think of integrating this on a global scale.

The fears of massive automation are overlooking one key component: politics. You can implement AI on a small scale but when you start talking about the trucking industry or aviation, the lobbyists and their pull will make the NRA look weak in comparison. Fully autonomous industries are Jetsons level tech and on the same timeline.
 

Ranger Psych

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Border runners should stop in a staging area and off load to you guys.
Toll roads were a comparison to create a similar system for just AI vehicles.
AI is here. Can’t stop it. Skynet is coming...
Cross-border ops for Knight were drop yards/cross-dock facilities. Literally doing just that.

I'm sure that there's plenty of real estate in the US to be able to build dedicated AI-only roadways with additional maintenance fees on top of the road tax per mile they already have to pay, that the companies will willingly pay for operating their reduced overhead apparatus. I'm sure they'll be well maintained just like Indiana/Ohio/other states with toll roads. I'm sure that those truck/AI routes will also never see 4wheelers just like every truck bypass in CA or other states, where big rigs are ticketed for not using but cars willy nilly do da fuck dey want and make those bypasses a headache when they're there for a reason like minimizing grade buildup/etc.

Scheduled, constant freight like UPS or Fedex will see AI soonest, but as I said, unless you have a T-800 in the cab as well, they ain't doing open deck. There's too much liability on the trucking company during the transit portion that is not shiftable to either end of the shipment, nevermind the safety aspect. Open deck has a whole lot going on with it, especially with the rather common "kitchen sink" loads that construction desires/requires to reduce end user costs. 4 stops picking up different products, having to forward think as to where all these different things can be loaded/shifted as more gets put on the trailer, making sure everything is secured properly...

I've had people try to put 2 cubic foot i-beam foot ends loose inside of other parts with no way to secure them, one bad bridge expansion joint from ejection off the deck. You want that coming through your windshield? With AI, it would have rode that way because the shippers flat out don't know better and/or don't care, have minimal to no desire to learn what legal even is let alone looks like, and have zero liability for what happens on the roadway.

To the trucking industry assuming 30 years down the road, what about having a completely AI driven truck, (1) having AI-driven logistics companies staff ground crews to hit all the loading and unloading operations at a given area of the city (industrial, commercial, etc.) since these are usually zoned similarly. Ex: 1 ground crew (2-4 person) hits all the stops in a X mile area for the Best Buys, Targets, Walmarts, etc. (2)Then, have weigh stations staffed with a smaller 1-2 person checking crew for when sensors note some problem that isn't quite stop worthy, but could be adjusted. (3) Finally, have a high-mobility crew transported by helicopter (with potentially a set number of helicopter landing zones every X number of miles on major ass highways which would be a popular infrastructure project for politicians) to the serious problems that require stopping. Likely assuming that Machine learning has penetrated to complement ATCs in deconflicting air space.
Hit's all the stops, eh.

  1. The walmart distribution center nearest my house has 152ish docks, with a truck every 3-5 minutes incoming/outgoing from non Walmart internal fleet Over-The-Road (OTR) trucks only, and when you throw in their private fleet plus their contractor fleet, it's about a truck every 1-3 minutes depending on time of day.
  2. Weight issues have to be addressed immediately on loading, otherwise it's a ticketable offence the instant that vehicle enters a public roadway. If that AI truck is pulling into a weigh station with issues, it's getting ticketed even if you can fix it right there. Case in point, being overweight in the winter due to ice buildup. Commercial vehicle ticketable offenses are always ticketed. You don't get out of anything free.
  3. Figuring a cost of 1 pilot 1 truck-unfucker... on the cheap end of the spectrum having that aircraft on standby is going to be over $30,000 a month, with an addendum of over $1200 an hour for aircraft hours.... for a load that is paying $1000 with a profit margin that with driver removed would end up meaning maybe $500. Not to mention that any stoppage event is a full stop event, you are completely stopping on the roadside as now you either aren't secured properly, don't have a tire you need, or have a mechanical issue to the point that you have to stop the truck for safety purposes. Ya gonna have a service truck and parts warehouse at all these government sponsored HLZ's as well to fix all the things that trucks stop on the roadside for?
Sorry to defecate all over your parade, but as with most things, until you actually do it, you don't even know what you don't know.
 
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