The China Thread (Threat)

Gunz

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China can also disrupt the US from Central and S. America where it's been active for many years, and I believe giving clandestine support to the triads which are heavily involved in human/drug trafficking through Mexico. Look, anything to fuck with America, it's all cumulative. And their cyberwar abilities are as good as it gets. I don't know if we'll ever get in a shooting war with China but I do believe they could--if not aggressively checked on all fronts, and if met with weakness and appeasement on the part of our leaders--reduce the United States to a second or even third-rate power. And that may indeed be their objective.
 

Frank S.

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They're coming up on a severe demographic problem as well, in the coming few years: men outnumbering women by 30 million, according to some estimates. And as has been seen throughout history, Blue Balls is a deadly disease with potential for cross-border mayhem.
With a ho-hum porn industry hampered by the Japanese, the US military remains our only hope.

The following is solely intended for representative purposes and does not in any way endorse nor propose fudge-packery in hole or part.


 

Etype

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... to become the undisputed most powerful nation, militarily and economically, on the planet.
Admirable goals, I wish the quoted text described the US.

The bozos in Washington don't realize that you have a lot more money to give to lazy people when you turn a bigger profit.
 

Gunz

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They're coming up on a severe demographic problem as well, in the coming few years: men outnumbering women by 30 million, according to some estimates. And as has been seen throughout history, Blue Balls is a deadly disease with potential for cross-border mayhem.
With a ho-hum porn industry hampered by the Japanese, the US military remains our only hope.

The following is solely intended for representative purposes and does not in any way endorse nor propose fudge-packery in hole or part.





They were a few genes short of angry homosexual rats, which, of course, would have been a more effective weapon.
 

CQB

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Not really speculation, @Diamondback, I think you're pretty close IM humble O. No-one really knows if it will be a peaceful rise or not, but to answer the energy question, about 80% of their oil goes through the Malacca Straight, if I can figure that out I'm pretty sure wiser heads have too. To look at the answer to that question is pretty interesting.
 

Diamondback 2/2

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It was my understanding that the Russia-China Oil & Gas deal maybe the game changer for China. I also have read over the past several years that China has increasingly worked deals with south American countries, and than there is the whole Nicaraguan-Chinese canal project.

It's going to be an interesting next 3-5 years either way.
 

CQB

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You may be right regarding the oil & gas. The Nico thing hasn't really turned a sod, I think it's just 'money in the bank for a rainy day,' as they play a long game of commercial diplomacy & a 2nd Panama is ideal. It's the exercise of commercial diplomacy relying on 'positive-sum' economic incentives rather than 'zero-sum' military buildups that works for them really well, Piraeus port in Greece is a good example & their Darwin port acquisition is as well.

ETA: the arms embargo with Vietnam has been lifted. More a regional balancing act than anything too concrete in terms of equipment, with predictable gnashing of teeth from the Chinese. Japan is the next port of call for Obama.

Obama lifts US embargo on lethal arms sales to Vietnam - BBC News
 
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CQB

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Well, the verdict of the International Court of Arbitration has been handed down and it's really no surprise. China is acting like some demented child who has dropped their lollies, whilst The PI behaves in a sober fashion, as has our government here. Trade apparently will not be affected...sooo it looks like jaw jaw is going to settle this, but it may take some time.
 

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A friend of mine who recently graduated from Princeton a few years back and has been living in Shanghai wrote an interesting piece on China's involvement (or lack thereof) in the war on terrorism:

China Will Eventually Enter The War On Terror. Don’t Expect It To Be On Our Side.


Many Western analysts believe that for a country of its size, China really ought to do more to stabilize the world. Given what we know about the Chinese government and Xi’s modus operandus, and given the pressure China will be under from its nationalist netizens should a more successful attack against Chinese interests occur, we should be careful what we wish for. China stepping up will not mean closer partnership with the United States.


 

CQB

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Its an interesting theory, but the co-operation between the US and China could be a way forward with China and the US, which are currently at odds, shall we say. The common enemy is radical Islam in both nations and remember: my enemy's enemy is my friend. China has more of a problem as they have a restive region in Xinjiang, which is internal and a larger problem than the US has internally.
The US pitch to Asia was misconstrued by China as containment, which it was not and this may be a good way of moving forward together. The article says the policy is not in alignment, but it's not that critical, our policy on certain things matters may not align with the US but it's a minor difference. I do certainly agree that China should do more to stabilize the world, instead of doing what they currently do.
 

Gunz

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Its an interesting theory, but the co-operation between the US and China could be a way forward with China and the US, which are currently at odds, shall we say. The common enemy is radical Islam in both nations and remember: my enemy's enemy is my friend. China has more of a problem as they have a restive region in Xinjiang, which is internal and a larger problem than the US has internally.
The US pitch to Asia was misconstrued by China as containment, which it was not and this may be a good way of moving forward together. The article says the policy is not in alignment, but it's not that critical, our policy on certain things matters may not align with the US but it's a minor difference. I do certainly agree that China should do more to stabilize the world, instead of doing what they currently do.


The Asia Pivot alarmed the Chinese...and as many times as the US reassures the PRC that these moves are not containment, nevertheless, obvious moves have taken place both strategically and diplomatically that have spurred China to take counter-containment efforts, most of them military in nature. And I have no doubt that any diplomatic move we make to reestablish alliances in SE Asia and elsewhere in the Pacific Rim are also being countered by PRC diplomats and intelligence agents. This in my view ratchets up the danger of incidents in the region. That doesn't mean I disagree with your post...I just think the containment/counter-containment issue is a bigger hurdle on any road to cooperation.
 

R.Caerbannog

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China can also disrupt the US from Central and S. America where it's been active for many years, and I believe giving clandestine support to the triads which are heavily involved in human/drug trafficking through Mexico. Look, anything to fuck with America, it's all cumulative. And their cyberwar abilities are as good as it gets. I don't know if we'll ever get in a shooting war with China but I do believe they could--if not aggressively checked on all fronts, and if met with weakness and appeasement on the part of our leaders--reduce the United States to a second or even third-rate power. And that may indeed be their objective.
I know this is an old post, but I have a family member that works in construction who sometimes shares rumors/tidbits that he picks up from conversations. Last year there were rumors about some cartel having Chinese personnel that acted as armorers for that group. The gist of the rumor was the way cartel members used to test fire their AK's (or Horn of Goat).

Initially the standard practice for cartel personnel was to pull the trigger and fire a shot; in order to test trigger function. To me this would indicate that the group was mainly exposed to semi-auto imports. After that group got the Chinese armorers, cartel personnel were supposedly discouraged from testing the trigger as, "they would empty the magazine". I always figured that this change in behavior, marked some sort of new evolution in technology available to them. Maybe a new chain of supply coming from a state sponsored source.

To be blunt, I am curious to see where the weapons and munitions originated from. Most of the raw chemicals that are used to manufacture meth are coming in from China. If they can get tons of drug making material into Mexico, why not people and equipment? Setting small brush-fires in our backyard does ties up resources that could be going elsewhere, which works out for the Chinese.
Its an interesting theory, but the co-operation between the US and China could be a way forward with China and the US, which are currently at odds, shall we say. The common enemy is radical Islam in both nations and remember: my enemy's enemy is my friend. China has more of a problem as they have a restive region in Xinjiang, which is internal and a larger problem than the US has internally.
The US pitch to Asia was misconstrued by China as containment, which it was not and this may be a good way of moving forward together. The article says the policy is not in alignment, but it's not that critical, our policy on certain things matters may not align with the US but it's a minor difference. I do certainly agree that China should do more to stabilize the world, instead of doing what they currently do.
I don't know. Sometimes I wonder if the Chinese aren't fanning the flames or outright providing direct aid to radical Islam. In the long run, I think that they ultimately benefit from letting radical Islam run amok. Heck, it givens them an excuse to crack down on internal dissidence and expand their global footprint; all in the name of "the greater good". Their weapons and tech have spread all through the SE Asia and Africa. They're mining for minerals all over conflict zones, still providing support for the DPRK, and goodness knows what else. Whatever their long term goals are, they scare the crap out of me.

If I am out of my lane, I'll be quiet.
 

Gunz

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I know this is an old post, but I have a family member that works in construction who sometimes shares rumors/tidbits that he picks up from conversations. Last year there were rumors about some cartel having Chinese personnel that acted as armorers for that group. The gist of the rumor was the way cartel members used to test fire their AK's (or Horn of Goat).

Initially the standard practice for cartel personnel was to pull the trigger and fire a shot; in order to test trigger function. To me this would indicate that the group was mainly exposed to semi-auto imports. After that group got the Chinese armorers, cartel personnel were supposedly discouraged from testing the trigger as, "they would empty the magazine". I always figured that this change in behavior, marked some sort of new evolution in technology available to them. Maybe a new chain of supply coming from a state sponsored source.

To be blunt, I am curious to see where the weapons and munitions originated from. Most of the raw chemicals that are used to manufacture meth are coming in from China. If they can get tons of drug making material into Mexico, why not people and equipment? Setting small brush-fires in our backyard does ties up resources that could be going elsewhere, which works out for the Chinese.

I don't know. Sometimes I wonder if the Chinese aren't fanning the flames or outright providing direct aid to radical Islam. In the long run, I think that they ultimately benefit from letting radical Islam run amok. Heck, it givens them an excuse to crack down on internal dissidence and expand their global footprint; all in the name of "the greater good". Their weapons and tech have spread all through the SE Asia and Africa. They're mining for minerals all over conflict zones, still providing support for the DPRK, and goodness knows what else. Whatever their long term goals are, they scare the crap out of me.

If I am out of my lane, I'll be quiet.


You're not out of your lane anymore than the rest of us on this subject.

There is probably truth to the rumors of Chinese involvement with the cartels, but "personnel" may be too official a word. I think it more likely that the Triads are the Chinese in question since they've been active in human/gun/drug trafficking in Central America. But there's also a gray area between the activities of the various Chinese elements working in CA. You have the "official" PRC political representatives, the Chinese businessmen, the intelligence agents, the Triads and some are probably all of the above. Chinese business interests are Chinese government interests or they wouldn't exist. One such is Hutchison-Whampoa which operates container terminals in Panama (and in some of the busiest ports in the world) and handles a significant percentage of the world's container traffic. And supposedly Hutchison profits help fund the Peoples Liberation Army.

Colon and Panama City are major money-laundering hubs and most of the Chinese activity, legal or illegal, in CA/SA seems to emanate from there. Don't forget also that the North Koreans are also wheeling and dealing in our hemisphere. And all these players--the cartels, the Maras, the narco-terrorists, the leftist guerrilla movements, the crooked regional politicians, police and military, the Chinese, the N. Koreans, the Russian mob--it's a goulash of intrigue for sure. :ninja:8-)
 
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CQB

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I'd say there's a difference between CCP and the Triads: CCP is not in the business of law breaking, more in strategic influence. Triads are more interested in making a dollar. As for fanning the flames of radical Islam, as discussed, they have their own internal problem with it. The one thing the CCP fears is the fracture of the state so I can't see how it would benefit from encouraging internal dissent or boosting it elsewhere. The "Stans" region is going to be a future problem, not only for China but for Russia as well.
 

Ooh-Rah

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For the same reason I don't see the US and China playing games, I don't see China duking it out with India.

Economics.

With so many of the relevant nations inter-dependent upon each other for economic stability, I am much more concerned about a computer glitch starting some type of international crisis than I am human decisions.
 
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