We live in a unprecedented age of globalism and inter connectivity, which raises the question, do any of the major powers
want a global full scale war?
I don't have any secondary education in regards to military strategy, intelligence, international diplomatic relations etc. I'm just a guy who has a lot of interest in this field so take what I say with as much salt as you want.
China and Russia have steadily become close allies through Moscow trading it's vast energy resources to Beijing in return for help to bolster its (Russia) stagnating economy due to the economic sanctions levied in '14. This raises the question though of how strong Russia actually is, and whether or not the power moves in Syria, Ukraine, and various other places are just Moscow beating it's chest in an attempt to cover up and hide potential weaknesses it may have. Because even though Russia may have seen a resurgence in its economy, a minor one at that, it's offloading it's debt to foreign entities (China, etc.) and much like the oil princes in the ME, Moscow lives and dies on its oil exports. All it takes is a negative impact on the price of crude oil, and Russia is back to trying and crawl it's way out of a recession.
The other half of the coin, being China, is led by what appears to be the second coming of Mao.
America May Encounter Another Mao in China
Somewhat joking aside (but not really joking), this is disconcerting, a strongly led and powerful China is dangerous especially one that is taking hard line Nationalistic verging into Jingoistic stances. The silver lining however is that, as a result of China's meteoric economic growth (an almost 7% increase for almost every quarter since 2015), we have become each other's number one trading partner.
Do we or Beijing want to lose this lucrative trade? I know the phrase goes money doesn't buy happiness, however it sure goes a hell of a long way to make you forget your problems or grievances.
I believe that Beijing and Moscow have enough sway over Pyonyang to prevent a nuclear launch regardless of the grandstanding that takes place, and deep down I believe Kim Jung Un understands how much of a mistake it would be to start a nuclear conflict.
What I think will happen is more of these "lesser" conflicts where minor states are fighting one another with support from the major state actors. Largely reminiscent of the Cold War or maybe even
The Great Game. What will happen for sure though an even larger shift towards cyber and economic warfare.
Who knows though, as stated previously all it takes is one misstep and a war the likes of which no one has ever seen will kick off.
Apologies if this seems incoherent at times