The rise of China

Gunz

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The people are the sea in which the guerrilla fighter swims, to paraphrase Mao...the Maritime Militia is like the seaborne version of the concept, at least in terms of masking the combatants to appear innocuous.
 

Gunz

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Silicon Valley-trained Chinese cyber-pirates pulled off the Los Alamos theft in 04. And what's the definition of a Chinese diplomat: Intelligence Agent. What is their ultimate goal? I believe it is to displace the US and its allies and the Russians and to become the undisputed most powerful nation, militarily and economically, on the planet.
 
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There have been more than a few articles lately (last 6 months) predicting the demise of their economy, with all of the predictable downstream results (inability to invest in the military infrastructure, especially their expansion into the SCS, etc.). With the way they are spending money like drunken sailors (and I have been one so I would know...), the $$ is going to run out sooner or later, and there would be the typical contraction of military spending and deployments. We'll see.
 

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There have been more than a few articles lately (last 6 months) predicting the demise of their economy, with all of the predictable downstream results (inability to invest in the military infrastructure, especially their expansion into the SCS, etc.). With the way they are spending money like drunken sailors (and I have been one so I would know...), the $$ is going to run out sooner or later, and there would be the typical contraction of military spending and deployments. We'll see.
Unrestricted Warfare - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

China has been manipulating their currency while purchasing monolithic amounts of gold. Several oil rich countries have wanted to shift to a gold backed currency, to later find themselves on the receiving end of an American involved liberation/revolution. Iraq, Libya, Syria to name a few. China has also mentioned a desire to transition to a gold backed currency ad the international reserve.

I'm not going to dive into the tin hatter stuff that's all over the interwebs, but there is plenty to read about, from false markets, to petro dollar, to the just so happens resource rich countries we have had the longest wars known to our history.

That all said, I expect the US economy to collapse completely, followed by the USD being abandoned as the international reserve currency, followed by China releasing a gold back currency to take place as the reserve currency. The US will go through about the same as the USSR did in the early 90's, reemerging 5-10 years later as still a global power, but significantly diminished in global influence.

Or

We are going to have World War Three and do like the Romans did, and use our significant military capabilities, along with our allies, to beat down whoever attempts to jack with the fiat currency system we have. This would look something like North and South Korea go at it as proxi of China and the US, Japan and China bang it out, with our support for Japan, India and China also start banging it out. Russia and the NATO countries bang it out in Europe, obviously with US involvements. We beat down China, fuck Russia up, start a new international trade and commerce arrangement with a new currency that favor's the US and Europe and carry on for another 70 years.

But than again, I may just be crazy...}:-)
 

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Diamondback 2/2

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I don't see China imploding unless they lose the manufacturing monopoly. Hints my comments about India. This is also why I believe China wants to assert controls over south China sea and why I believe China would use North Korea in proxy against South Korea. Currently Vietnam and the Philippines don't have the military capabilities to rebuff China. I think Japan will be there (if they are not already) soon.

China's big problem is resources and more specifically energy. So the leverage point would be controlling China's ability to import oil, but China has been working on that over the last decade. But that all ties into the petro dollar, OPEC and more specifically south America and Africa.

China is not acting like a nation on the verge of imploding, they're acting like a nation strategically setting themselves up to assert controls to insure their economic growth and viability across the globe.

This is all speculation and theory on my part, I read a lot on the goings on with China and the Asian-Pacific region. But its all open source and everything is manipulated on all sides, so it wouldn't surprise me that I am dead wrong.

What I do know is China will not engage us militarily directly. They don't have the capabilities on the sea or the air. This is why they are building those islands and why they are more likely to engage in small conflicts with Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan. China knows we absolutely will come to the defense of S/Korea so again, that would be proxy, Japan, we would probably sell the weapons, but not engage directly with China.

$.02
 

Gunz

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China can also disrupt the US from Central and S. America where it's been active for many years, and I believe giving clandestine support to the triads which are heavily involved in human/drug trafficking through Mexico. Look, anything to fuck with America, it's all cumulative. And their cyberwar abilities are as good as it gets. I don't know if we'll ever get in a shooting war with China but I do believe they could--if not aggressively checked on all fronts, and if met with weakness and appeasement on the part of our leaders--reduce the United States to a second or even third-rate power. And that may indeed be their objective.
 

Frank S.

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They're coming up on a severe demographic problem as well, in the coming few years: men outnumbering women by 30 million, according to some estimates. And as has been seen throughout history, Blue Balls is a deadly disease with potential for cross-border mayhem.
With a ho-hum porn industry hampered by the Japanese, the US military remains our only hope.

The following is solely intended for representative purposes and does not in any way endorse nor propose fudge-packery in hole or part.


 

Etype

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... to become the undisputed most powerful nation, militarily and economically, on the planet.
Admirable goals, I wish the quoted text described the US.

The bozos in Washington don't realize that you have a lot more money to give to lazy people when you turn a bigger profit.
 

Gunz

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They're coming up on a severe demographic problem as well, in the coming few years: men outnumbering women by 30 million, according to some estimates. And as has been seen throughout history, Blue Balls is a deadly disease with potential for cross-border mayhem.
With a ho-hum porn industry hampered by the Japanese, the US military remains our only hope.

The following is solely intended for representative purposes and does not in any way endorse nor propose fudge-packery in hole or part.




They were a few genes short of angry homosexual rats, which, of course, would have been a more effective weapon.
 

CQB

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Not really speculation, @Diamondback, I think you're pretty close IM humble O. No-one really knows if it will be a peaceful rise or not, but to answer the energy question, about 80% of their oil goes through the Malacca Straight, if I can figure that out I'm pretty sure wiser heads have too. To look at the answer to that question is pretty interesting.
 

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It was my understanding that the Russia-China Oil & Gas deal maybe the game changer for China. I also have read over the past several years that China has increasingly worked deals with south American countries, and than there is the whole Nicaraguan-Chinese canal project.

It's going to be an interesting next 3-5 years either way.
 

CQB

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You may be right regarding the oil & gas. The Nico thing hasn't really turned a sod, I think it's just 'money in the bank for a rainy day,' as they play a long game of commercial diplomacy & a 2nd Panama is ideal. It's the exercise of commercial diplomacy relying on 'positive-sum' economic incentives rather than 'zero-sum' military buildups that works for them really well, Piraeus port in Greece is a good example & their Darwin port acquisition is as well.

ETA: the arms embargo with Vietnam has been lifted. More a regional balancing act than anything too concrete in terms of equipment, with predictable gnashing of teeth from the Chinese. Japan is the next port of call for Obama.

Obama lifts US embargo on lethal arms sales to Vietnam - BBC News
 
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CQB

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Well, the verdict of the International Court of Arbitration has been handed down and it's really no surprise. China is acting like some demented child who has dropped their lollies, whilst The PI behaves in a sober fashion, as has our government here. Trade apparently will not be affected...sooo it looks like jaw jaw is going to settle this, but it may take some time.
 

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A friend of mine who recently graduated from Princeton a few years back and has been living in Shanghai wrote an interesting piece on China's involvement (or lack thereof) in the war on terrorism:

China Will Eventually Enter The War On Terror. Don’t Expect It To Be On Our Side.


Many Western analysts believe that for a country of its size, China really ought to do more to stabilize the world. Given what we know about the Chinese government and Xi’s modus operandus, and given the pressure China will be under from its nationalist netizens should a more successful attack against Chinese interests occur, we should be careful what we wish for. China stepping up will not mean closer partnership with the United States.

 

CQB

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Its an interesting theory, but the co-operation between the US and China could be a way forward with China and the US, which are currently at odds, shall we say. The common enemy is radical Islam in both nations and remember: my enemy's enemy is my friend. China has more of a problem as they have a restive region in Xinjiang, which is internal and a larger problem than the US has internally.
The US pitch to Asia was misconstrued by China as containment, which it was not and this may be a good way of moving forward together. The article says the policy is not in alignment, but it's not that critical, our policy on certain things matters may not align with the US but it's a minor difference. I do certainly agree that China should do more to stabilize the world, instead of doing what they currently do.
 
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